FORECASTERS REVIEW PROJECTIONS FOR DRY SEASON

January 08, 2007

Forecasters in Belize met last week to review the projections for the dry season this year as well as expectations for the Hurricane Season. Love News spoke with Deputy Chief Meteorologist Ramon Frutos.

Ramon Frutos:Deputy Chief Meteorologist

“Its possible the if the El Nino phase out by the middle or the end of May then we begin hurricane season this year with a phase out or a weaken El Nino situation, which indicate then that tropical cyclone activity could be on the increase as we move through the hurricane season this year. Its possible that the influence of the El Nino will still persist through the first two or three months of the hurricane season then after that it will fade away. And as that fade away then conditions could become much more favorable for tropical cyclone activity to develop in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic as we move through the later and the end part of the hurricane season of 2007. During 2006 the El Nino set in, in August and September that was more or less the peak periods of the hurricane season of 2006 and most of the researchers and scientist are indicating that it is possible that the on set of the El Nino during the mid to late part of this northern hemisphere summer was one of the cause for the suppression of hurricane activity in the Western Atlantic the Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico during the hurricane season of 2006, however this year it won’t be that way. Another factor that could contribute to increase hurricane activity this 2007 would be an intense dry season which would probably result in warmer temperatures as the international community is expecting on a global scale, which could also affect the Caribbean and heat up the ocean surface temperatures and this is then another ingredient that propel or enhance the cyclone activity and convections in the region during the hurricane season.”

Frutos said for the period 1995 to 2005 we have been getting a series of intense dry seasons. He said there are a number of areas in the country vulnerable to dry spells.

Ramon Frutos:Deputy Chief Meteorologist

“Generally during dry spells or a drought condition as we call it the areas of Belize that usually get the low water levels are the Belize, Cayo, Orange Walk and Corozal Districts. Even the Stann Creek District when the dry spell is intense, water levels could drop very low in the Stann Creek or the banana growing areas of Belize. Hence the projection is true then these areas will have to implement some type of measure to get the water to do some irrigation to keep the banana industry going. So this is already giving the people in the banana industry and also in the citrus industry some idea of what they will have to begin to look forward to as we move through he dry season this year, that water levels probably by the end of April could be very low in some areas and they will have to implement their irrigation system. And they will have to tap their wells even more and they will have to be very careful when they are tapping those wells because water levels within the wells will be falling also so they can’t really be pumping out too much water because that could affect from where they are extracting that water. So we see that could be a combination of many factors that could lead to water shortage during the height of a dry spell or a drought condition in Belize.”

Ramon Frutos Deputy Chief Meteorologist.

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